Wednesday, September 14, 2005
Sink or Swim? A Prognosis for the Fourth Estate
An old theme revisited: Newspaper survival in the digital age- optimism or inevitability?
To return to a subject of past blogs, the question of survival of traditional, printed news is looking a little more hopeful. With The Guardian being the third broadsheet in the UK to adopt either the tabloid or Berliner format, clear evidence of the willingness of newspapers to adapt to external 'threats' from the new media is emerging. It's ironic that it may be the preference of newspaper readers to get their daily dose of news in the loo that may well save this billion-dollar industry from being slowly obliterated!
The story must however be cast in an even more optimistic light for the newspaper industry in the most rapidly growing economies of the world- India and China. In India in particular, the deleterious effects on newspaper readership arising from the growth of the digital media is being counterbalanced by an autonomous boom in newspaper readership itself. Thus the time is ripe for the big newspapers of the country to take on a form that they will anyway have to in the future- Berliner or 'compact' (aka tabloid). The article below, from the BBC news website, explains why such a move may well be an inevitability.
As always, a suggestion for that most respectable of papers in the country- The Hindu: Take a look at the online models of The Guardian and even The Economist magazine. They price differentiate across articles- zero price for some, minimal charge for premium content. This is, given the electronic explosion in the country, a powerful means to tap into the demand for online news (perhaps for a few paise more per day), and yet retain the readership base of loyal subscribers to the print version. This is not a new idea. Perhaps a variant of this scheme could be to offer the online version free of charge to those who subscribe to the print version. The possibilities are endless.
But, alas, there will be a price to pay for procrastination...
From the BBC: What will newspapers look like in 20 years?
The re-sizing of the Guardian into a so-called Berliner is the latest radical step by newspapers trying to arrest declining sales. So what will papers look like in 20 years, if they're still around?
Not even the wisest sage could predict with confidence what form newspapers will adopt - but there are certain pointers which seem to be sensible.
Firstly the fact of newspapers' existence at all. Their death has long been predicted. Even just 10 years ago, doom-mongers said websites and rolling television news would mean the end of cumbersome, outdated and smudgy print.
Just as the bowler hats had disappeared from the City, so the newspapers tucked under arms would follow into oblivion, they said.
Since that prophesy, the threat has been compounded by blogs, search engines, mobile phones, PDAs and even electronic paper.
Although newspapers have so far defied the gloomy predictions, they are taking radical steps to respond to the competition. The Guardian is the third daily broadsheet to adopt a more compact size - and others may well follow.
Despite these changes, though, the format has not changed hugely radically since the first English language private newspaper, the Corante, was published in 1621 in London.
Today, global newspaper sales are up, by 2.1% in 2004, but not in the UK, down 4.4% on 2003.
This is hardly surprising, given the competition. The appetite for news websites or search engines which gather news stories has rocketed. More and more people are accessing news on other platforms like mobile phones, while blogs offer a more personalised and off-beat take on news events.
And other technical innovations - such as electronic paper which can display text and be re-written - are in the pipeline.
A glimpse of what could be possible came in the film Minority Report, in a scene where a man reads what looks like a newspaper, but the page changes electronically as he is reading it.
British newspapers won't die out, says media commentator Vince Graff, because they are so portable, easy to use and cheap.
Their content has changed, in response to the competition of 24-hour news outlets, to reflect more entertainment, lifestyle and analysis, he says. But the paper format will survive.
RIP broadsheets
"I think even in 50 years' time there will be newspapers on paper, though they may be a niche product then, perhaps in the same way vinyl records are now," he says.
"The thing is paper is terribly convenient: how many newspaper-buyers read them on the loo?
"But I think it is looking increasingly unlikely that there will be anything in broadsheet shape. That is already looking very old fashioned."
More people will use e-papers, says Caroline Bassett, senior lecturer at the department of media and film at Sussex University.
"You could imagine newspapers existing as data which can be sent to many kinds of electronic screens.
"So you could collect your paper from your portable device such as mobile phone or laptop. At the other end of the market there could be newspapers delivered to public screens in stations, for example."
But the newspaper as we know it today will survive, says Ms Bassett, because it is favoured by many readers who find it easier to scan and more pleasant to hold.
Just as radio has survived television and theatre has defied film, the traditional newspaper - and in a form we would recognise - could endure.
To return to a subject of past blogs, the question of survival of traditional, printed news is looking a little more hopeful. With The Guardian being the third broadsheet in the UK to adopt either the tabloid or Berliner format, clear evidence of the willingness of newspapers to adapt to external 'threats' from the new media is emerging. It's ironic that it may be the preference of newspaper readers to get their daily dose of news in the loo that may well save this billion-dollar industry from being slowly obliterated!
The story must however be cast in an even more optimistic light for the newspaper industry in the most rapidly growing economies of the world- India and China. In India in particular, the deleterious effects on newspaper readership arising from the growth of the digital media is being counterbalanced by an autonomous boom in newspaper readership itself. Thus the time is ripe for the big newspapers of the country to take on a form that they will anyway have to in the future- Berliner or 'compact' (aka tabloid). The article below, from the BBC news website, explains why such a move may well be an inevitability.
As always, a suggestion for that most respectable of papers in the country- The Hindu: Take a look at the online models of The Guardian and even The Economist magazine. They price differentiate across articles- zero price for some, minimal charge for premium content. This is, given the electronic explosion in the country, a powerful means to tap into the demand for online news (perhaps for a few paise more per day), and yet retain the readership base of loyal subscribers to the print version. This is not a new idea. Perhaps a variant of this scheme could be to offer the online version free of charge to those who subscribe to the print version. The possibilities are endless.
But, alas, there will be a price to pay for procrastination...
From the BBC: What will newspapers look like in 20 years?
The re-sizing of the Guardian into a so-called Berliner is the latest radical step by newspapers trying to arrest declining sales. So what will papers look like in 20 years, if they're still around?
Not even the wisest sage could predict with confidence what form newspapers will adopt - but there are certain pointers which seem to be sensible.
Firstly the fact of newspapers' existence at all. Their death has long been predicted. Even just 10 years ago, doom-mongers said websites and rolling television news would mean the end of cumbersome, outdated and smudgy print.
Just as the bowler hats had disappeared from the City, so the newspapers tucked under arms would follow into oblivion, they said.
Since that prophesy, the threat has been compounded by blogs, search engines, mobile phones, PDAs and even electronic paper.
Although newspapers have so far defied the gloomy predictions, they are taking radical steps to respond to the competition. The Guardian is the third daily broadsheet to adopt a more compact size - and others may well follow.
Despite these changes, though, the format has not changed hugely radically since the first English language private newspaper, the Corante, was published in 1621 in London.
Today, global newspaper sales are up, by 2.1% in 2004, but not in the UK, down 4.4% on 2003.
This is hardly surprising, given the competition. The appetite for news websites or search engines which gather news stories has rocketed. More and more people are accessing news on other platforms like mobile phones, while blogs offer a more personalised and off-beat take on news events.
And other technical innovations - such as electronic paper which can display text and be re-written - are in the pipeline.
A glimpse of what could be possible came in the film Minority Report, in a scene where a man reads what looks like a newspaper, but the page changes electronically as he is reading it.
British newspapers won't die out, says media commentator Vince Graff, because they are so portable, easy to use and cheap.
Their content has changed, in response to the competition of 24-hour news outlets, to reflect more entertainment, lifestyle and analysis, he says. But the paper format will survive.
RIP broadsheets
"I think even in 50 years' time there will be newspapers on paper, though they may be a niche product then, perhaps in the same way vinyl records are now," he says.
"The thing is paper is terribly convenient: how many newspaper-buyers read them on the loo?
"But I think it is looking increasingly unlikely that there will be anything in broadsheet shape. That is already looking very old fashioned."
More people will use e-papers, says Caroline Bassett, senior lecturer at the department of media and film at Sussex University.
"You could imagine newspapers existing as data which can be sent to many kinds of electronic screens.
"So you could collect your paper from your portable device such as mobile phone or laptop. At the other end of the market there could be newspapers delivered to public screens in stations, for example."
But the newspaper as we know it today will survive, says Ms Bassett, because it is favoured by many readers who find it easier to scan and more pleasant to hold.
Just as radio has survived television and theatre has defied film, the traditional newspaper - and in a form we would recognise - could endure.
# posted by Narayan Lakshman @ 8:05 AM 
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