Tuesday, May 31, 2011

 

BRICS' open revolt against European grip on IMF


From The Hindu

The International Monetary Fund’s Executive Directors from the BRICS economies have openly revolted against the prospect of the Fund’s Managing Director role reverting to a European, deepening the woes of an organisation that was recently rocked to its very core by the resignation of former Dominique Strauss-Kahn following sexual assault allegations.

In an unprecedentedly explicit articulation of long-standing resentment over the convention of selecting the MD, “in practice, on the basis of nationality,” IMF Directors from India, China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa said in a public statement that this “undermines the legitimacy of the Fund.”

The BRICS group, including India representative Arvind Virmani, called for the abandonment of the “obsolete unwritten convention,” that required the head of the IMF necessarily to be from Europe. There has been no reaction yet from any other quarter within the IMF.

While the Fund regularly recommends painful reforms packages to crisis-ridden developing nations, the BRICS Directors’ comments are a stinging critique of the IMF’s failure to speed up its own internal restructuring process. Europe’s grip over the MD’s seat dates as far back as 1946 yet it has come under fire especially since 2005 when the G20 group of major economies called for far-reaching reform to improve the Bretton Woods institution’s “governance, strategy and operations.”

Bringing a hard-to-repudiate argument to the fore the Directors said that their common understanding was that the recent financial crisis had actually erupted in developed countries and its provenance “underscored the urgency of reforming international financial institutions so as to reflect the growing role of developing countries in the world economy.”

Pressing their main point on the altered landscape of economic power today, the BRICS Directors noted, “We also believe that adequate representation of emerging market and developing members in the Fund's management is critical to its legitimacy and effectiveness.”

Referring to several international agreements that had already outlined the need for a “transparent, merit-based and competitive process” for choosing an MD, the BRICS Directors said that a more credible and legitimate route would be require the MD to be selected “after broad consultation with the membership.” As it stands, the IMF announced last week that the nomination period would commence on May 23 and will close on June 10.

In a prescient statement that came before Wednesday’s announcement of candidacy for the influential IMF job by French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, the Directors said, "We are concerned with public statements made recently by high-level European officials to the effect that the position of MD should continue to be occupied by a European."

Hitting back at such statements, they argued that such remarks contradicted public announcements made in 2007, “when Mr. Jean-Claude Junker, president of the Euro group, declared that “the next MD will certainly not be a European” and that “in the Euro group and among EU finance ministers, everyone is aware that Strauss-Kahn will probably be the last European to become director of the IMF in the foreseeable future.””

On the other side of the Atlantic U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have consistently called for an “open process that leads to a prompt succession for the Fund's new MD,” yet Nancy Birdsall, a former top official at the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank said that the question now is “whether and how this commitment [by the G-20, to a merit-based process] will be honoured.”

In a clear signal that the shift in the global locus of power would continue to be a point of contention the BRICS Directors cautioned that in addition to the Fund’s next MD having solid technical background and political acumen, they should be "a person that is committed to continuing the process of change and reform of the institution so as to adapt it to the new realities of the world economy."

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Will prove innocence, says Strauss-Kahn


From The Hindu

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund jailed over allegations of sexual assault on a New York hotel maid, has quit his official role four days after the incident.

The IMF said Mr. Strauss-Kahn had on Wednesday informed its Executive Board of his resignation. The Fund also announced John Lipsky as acting Managing Director.

In his letter of resignation to the Board, Mr. Strauss-Kahn said he wanted to “devote all my strength, all my time, and all my energy to proving my innocence”. He said it was with “infinite sadness” that he had decided to resign. His thoughts were with his family and colleagues at the Fund with whom he “accomplished such great things over the last three years and more”, he said.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn is being held in isolation at the notorious Rikers Island prison in New York and, according to an AP report, is on suicide watch.

Meanwhile, Jeffrey Shapiro, the lawyer of the maid who has alleged Mr. Strauss-Kahn assaulted her, said his client had been unable to resume her duties given the media attention. He also denied it had been consensual sex between Mr. Strauss-Kahn and his client, an argument Mr. Strauss-Kahn's lawyers were said to be considering. “There is no question this was not consensual — she was assaulted and she had to escape from him, which is why when she finally got out of the room, she reported it to security immediately,” said Mr. Shapiro.

The New York Times reported that Mr. Strauss-Kahn would on Thursday seek a renewed bail hearing and would be “willing to be confined to a location in Manhattan, wear an electronic ankle bracelet to monitor his movements and post $1 million bail in cash”.

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We remain operational: IMF

From The Hindu

Following the arrest of its Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in New York on Saturday, the International Monetary Fund said “The IMF remains fully functioning and operational.”

The arrest has raised questions about whether the IMF's role in managing the ongoing debt crisis in Europe would continue unimpeded. The Fund issued a muted statement confirming Mr. Strauss-Kahn's arrest noting that all inquiries would be referred to his personal lawyer and to the local authorities.

Meanwhile, Mr. Strauss-Kahn was remanded to the infamous Rikers Island prison in New York City following the denial of bail over charges that he attempted to sexually assault a hotel maid on Saturday.

Mr. Strauss-Kahn, who appeared “haggard and unshaven” before a New York City district judge following a weekend in prison, was refused bail after state prosecutors argued that he would likely flee to France. “He would be living openly and notoriously in France, just like Roman Polanski,” Chief Assistant District Attorney Daniel Alonso told media

The top economist and potential presidential contender in French politics will wake up on Wednesday in an eleven-by-fourteen-foot cell in the same jail compound that housed Mark Chapman, musician John Lennon's killer. Given the high-profile nature, however, Mr. Strauss-Kahn will be held in protective custody in Rikers' West Facility, one of 10 prisons within the complex. Though it is the smallest facility, the West Facility was said to be “typically used to house prisoners with contagious diseases,” and was thought to be appropriate for Mr. Strauss-Kahn as he will not be permitted any contact with other prisoners “in case he is attacked by other inmates,” reports said.

In the bail hearing earlier on Monday, Mr. Strauss-Kahn's defence attorney Ben Brafman argued that the “battle has just begun,” and it was “quite likely he will be exonerated.” His defence team also confirmed that Mr. Strauss-Kahn had agreed to subject himself to forensic testing. Mr. Strauss-Kahn could face anywhere between five to 25 years in prison, said legal experts.

After Mr. Strauss-Kahn was arrested as he attempted to board a flight to Paris from New York's John F Kennedy airport, Judge Melissa Jackson had rejected his offer of $1 million as bail, along with his offer to wear an electronic tag. Mr. Brafman however suggested that his client might appeal the bail denial.

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Sunday, December 26, 2010

 

Rebalancing necessary for sustainable growth in Asia: IMF


From The Hindu

While economic growth in Asia, including India, has been strong in 2010, its sustainability in 2011 will require “policy tightening,” lesser reliance on export-led growth and an overall rebalancing that requires moving away from this year's stimulus policies, according to Anoop Singh, Director for the Asia-Pacific region at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Speaking to a group of journalists at the Fund's headquarters here, Mr. Singh said that Asia “performed remarkably well in 2010,” and in part Asia's own growth was led by strong growth in China and India.

In particular, such growth had been spurred on, in the first half of 2010, by a rebound in global manufacturing, a rise in domestic demand and also “appropriate policy stimulus.” In the second-half of 2010, there was a “moderation of activity, but we have leaned towards a more sustainable pace,” Mr. Singh said.

He noted that the IMF expected growth in Asia to remain relatively strong and continue at a “fairly robust 7 per cent in 2011, which we see as a sustainable rate.”

However, Mr. Singh cautioned that despite this prospect, Asia remained subject to downside risks from the external environment, including the risk that global growth could be weaker than expected in advanced economies; and that there could be risks arising from the “financial spill-over” also from advanced economies to Asian banks, firms and sovereign debt.

In this context, two major policy challenges remained — the first relating to the exit of Asian economies from the policy stimulus, “which Asia has certainly enjoyed for the last year-and-a-half.” The second challenge pertained to capital inflows that the region faced along with other emerging markets “and this is partly because of the growth divergence relative to advance economies.”

In response to a question from The Hindu on why the Fund recommended policy tightening when there were still some possible downside risks to growth that could emerge from advanced economies, Mr. Singh said, “In the short run, Asia and India have clearly seen that the output gap is closing and inflationary pressures exist.”

He noted that for example, while core inflation had risen in India, the IMF expected that such inflation “should decline in the coming months [and] the government is quite sure that it should be down to 5.5 per cent in March.”

Further, he said, macroeconomic indicators have lags and in India monetary policy works with long lags. Thus the IMF estimated that “the peak effect of monetary policy in India, on inflation, probably takes five to six quarters. We see... in many parts of Asia, including India, that the real policy rates are low or negative, which is somewhat inconsistent with where the output gap is and where inflationary conditions are.” Hence the conditions were right for removing the macro stimulus, he added.

Mr. Singh said that overall, “We know that Asia is an economic powerhouse and it accounts for an increasing share of the world's growth. In large part due to the rapid growth in India and China over the last ten years, and this is expected to continue over the medium and longer term.”

He said that in order to maintain these high growth rates, the region would need to rebalance and would reduce its reliance on export-led growth. “Rebalancing will be the key to sustaining growth partly because the growth in advanced economies will remain sluggish... for some years,” he said.

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Sunday, July 11, 2010

 

IMF hikes growth forecast, warns of "strong clouds"


From The Hindu

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its world economic growth forecast from 4 per cent to 4.5 per cent, reflecting the positive impact of economic activity in the first half of the year as much as it did the “strong clouds [that] have appeared on the horizon,” according to an official statement.

Offering comments on the release of the updated forecast, Olivier Blanchard, Chief Economist at the Fund, said, “While we remain cautiously optimistic about the pace of recovery, there are clear dangers and policy challenges ahead.”

In particular, there were concerns about how Europe would deal with fiscal and financial problems, the progress that advanced countries make with fiscal consolidation, and the efforts of emerging countries to rebalance their economies, Mr. Blanchard noted.

On the upside, the Fund report said, the numbers on economic activity for the first half of the year “have come in strong, indeed somewhat stronger than we had forecast”. These would give reasons to be more optimistic than the fund had been earlier, Mr. Blanchard added, referring to an April forecast for growth according to which world economic output was expected to expand at 4 per cent.

Specifically the Fund was cheered by the fact that the world economy expanded at an annualised rate of over 5 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 and that growth was stronger than expected in most countries, including the United States, Europe, Japan, Brazil, and India. “A good sign for the future,” according to the IMF was the finding that in most cases, such growth reflected stronger private demand.

Yet on the downside Mr. Blanchard cautioned that the strong clouds that had appeared on the horizon present “real dangers and serious policy challenges, and give reasons to be less optimistic than we were earlier”.

Clouds threaten global economy

The clouds started building over Greece, but quickly extended to Europe, Mr. Blanchard explained, underscoring that these clouds threatened to cover the entire global economy. He argued that worries about fiscal solvency in Greece got transmitted to fiscal solvency concerns elsewhere and this in turn led to doubts about “the solvency of banks… financial turbulence, disruptions in market financing and a freeze in the interbank market in Europe”.

Despite striking this ominous note for the future, the IMF still noted that its forecast for 2011 would remain broadly unchanged, at about 4.25 per cent. It added that both this and the 2010 growth rates however “hide a large difference between and within advanced and emerging and developing economies”.

In particular, the IMF forecasted growth for advanced countries at 2.6 per cent for 2010 and 2.4 per cent for 2011, emphasising that these low growth rates implied that high unemployment would remain a central issue.

In significant contrast however, the Fund’s growth projection for emerging and developing economies was 6.8 per cent in 2010 and 6.4 per cent in 2011, which included an upward revision of 0.5 per cent for 2010 and a downward revision of 0.1 per cent for 2011.

The IMF also called upon emerging countries such as India to deal with capital flows, expected to increase in the aftermath of the crisis in Europe, because such flows were “largely driven by good fundamentals, and likely to be long lasting.” Mr. Blanchard said that limiting their size through controls, or fighting their effect on the exchange rate through reserve accumulation, may prove “difficult and eventually self defeating”.

The Fund also recommended that emerging market countries focus on shifting from external to internal demand, as that would permit them to maintain growth in the face of lower exports to advanced countries, and to better satisfy domestic needs. This would require both structural reforms and exchange rate appreciations, the fund said.

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Monday, April 26, 2010

 

Developing countries get a bigger say in the World Bank

From The Hindu

At the end of two days of the annual Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, its constituents endorsed “voice reform” to increase the voting power of developing and transition countries (DTC) in the World Bank by 3.13 per cent, bringing their proportional voice to 47.19 per cent.

World Bank members including India also agreed to boost the “selective capital” of the institution by over $86 billion along with giving developing countries slightly over 47.19 per cent of the total votes. The advanced economies’ share under the new arrangements would drop to under 52.81 per cent.

However Ashok Chawla, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs Leader of the Indian Delegation to the Development Committee Representing the Constituency consisting of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Sri Lanka, said, “What we have in front of us today is not a perfect set of arrangements. It is a compromise package.” Mr. Chawla argued that while a few of the outcomes that the DTC had hoped for had been met, the new structure still had flaws.

He argued that for the future, economic weight must be based on a blend that gives more weight to GDP at purchasing power parity, which captures the dynamism of economic growth and the real economy much better. Mr. Chawla said, “We can live with it today. But the future composition of the blend needs to be debated further.”

At the meetings, the first steps towards voice reform in the International Finance Corporation were also announced. The restructuring included an increase in basic votes and a selective capital increase of $200 million according to which DTC voting power would rise to 39.48 per cent and “move towards a broad and flexible alignment with IBRD [World Bank] shareholding.” Regarding the IFC restructuring Mr. Chawla said, “We support the increase in Basic Votes to 5.55 percent.”

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