Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Is the enrichment debate reaching critical mass?
From The Hindu
When pressed on whether the U.S. would spearhead any new guidelines that flouted the clean waiver given to India, State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said: “The NSG has an annual meeting every year and the goal of this group is to contribute to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of a set of agreed guidelines for nuclear exports, nuclear-related products, and to ensure that nuclear trade is for purely peaceful reasons.”
This blunt re-stating of the established position does not augur well for an argument-free meeting in Netherlands.
Yet, in media briefings, Indian officials too, reverted to their firm belief that what was promised to India could not be overturned. “From the Indian point of view the important thing is that the NSG had given a clean waiver to India and we want to emphasise that,” said Indian Ambassador Meera Shankar. Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma added, “In our perspective, or in our understanding, which is a very clear one, enrichment technology is part of that.”
However, given the way the bilateral nuclear web has been spun, there will be a more complex denouement that is likely to go beyond any single NSG meeting. After all, the passage of the nuclear liability bill has left U.S. nuclear firms in legal limbo even as they scramble to assess the risks they will have to take on if they are to set up shop on Indian soil.
Thus far, Indian officials seem happy to take a decidedly parental view on moving things forward — firm that they will not budge from the wording of the bill passed in Parliament and yet encouraging toward U.S. nuclear corporations that have got swept up in a cloud of uncertainty and risk-aversion.
In this context, Ms. Shankar said while India has said publicly it would ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation this year, “It is for the U.S. companies now to proceed with commercial negotiations... and we would hope that the companies would move forward quickly in this regard.” Ms. Shankar added that the nuclear companies “have been in touch” and had held discussions and workshops with India's nuclear power apparatus.
The U.S. may, nevertheless, wish to tread carefully as it is increasingly clear its nuclear competitors such as Russia and France are sparing no effort to move forward with their engagements with the Indian establishment.
Mr. Sharma said here that these countries might soon even be able to conclude commercial negotiations. “When I was in France, the French nuclear people, including the CEO of Areva, met with me. It is very clear that [similarly Russia] is very enthusiastic to move forward.”
Given the multiplicity of options for Indian policymakers, New Delhi's strategic patience in dealing with U.S. nuclear companies may not last forever. If the U.S. introduces harsh NSG restrictions against the sale of enrichment technology to India, especially, it may well find itself at the receiving end of a dangerous chain reaction.
With the second round of the United States-India Strategic Dialogue round the corner, public messages by both governments indicate a blossoming bonhomie. But if the Nuclear Suppliers Group proposes more restrictive guidelines this week for the sale of enrichment technology to countries such as India, make no mistake, the daggers will be out.
Both sides appeared to be digging in their heels and heading for a potentially sharp disagreement in Noordwijk, Netherlands, where India's request for membership is also on the NSG agenda. While this follows logically from the U.S. promise to back India's entry into the global multilateral export control regimes, the guidelines that are being proposed are “set to up-end India's clean waiver” (see The Hindu, June 18, 2011).
When pressed on whether the U.S. would spearhead any new guidelines that flouted the clean waiver given to India, State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said: “The NSG has an annual meeting every year and the goal of this group is to contribute to non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of a set of agreed guidelines for nuclear exports, nuclear-related products, and to ensure that nuclear trade is for purely peaceful reasons.”
This blunt re-stating of the established position does not augur well for an argument-free meeting in Netherlands.
Yet, in media briefings, Indian officials too, reverted to their firm belief that what was promised to India could not be overturned. “From the Indian point of view the important thing is that the NSG had given a clean waiver to India and we want to emphasise that,” said Indian Ambassador Meera Shankar. Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma added, “In our perspective, or in our understanding, which is a very clear one, enrichment technology is part of that.”
However, given the way the bilateral nuclear web has been spun, there will be a more complex denouement that is likely to go beyond any single NSG meeting. After all, the passage of the nuclear liability bill has left U.S. nuclear firms in legal limbo even as they scramble to assess the risks they will have to take on if they are to set up shop on Indian soil.
Thus far, Indian officials seem happy to take a decidedly parental view on moving things forward — firm that they will not budge from the wording of the bill passed in Parliament and yet encouraging toward U.S. nuclear corporations that have got swept up in a cloud of uncertainty and risk-aversion.
In this context, Ms. Shankar said while India has said publicly it would ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation this year, “It is for the U.S. companies now to proceed with commercial negotiations... and we would hope that the companies would move forward quickly in this regard.” Ms. Shankar added that the nuclear companies “have been in touch” and had held discussions and workshops with India's nuclear power apparatus.
The U.S. may, nevertheless, wish to tread carefully as it is increasingly clear its nuclear competitors such as Russia and France are sparing no effort to move forward with their engagements with the Indian establishment.
Mr. Sharma said here that these countries might soon even be able to conclude commercial negotiations. “When I was in France, the French nuclear people, including the CEO of Areva, met with me. It is very clear that [similarly Russia] is very enthusiastic to move forward.”
Given the multiplicity of options for Indian policymakers, New Delhi's strategic patience in dealing with U.S. nuclear companies may not last forever. If the U.S. introduces harsh NSG restrictions against the sale of enrichment technology to India, especially, it may well find itself at the receiving end of a dangerous chain reaction.
Labels: enrichment technology, NSG meet, United States-India Strategic Dialogue
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Focus on economics in upcoming India-U.S. meetings
From The Hindu
The second round of the United States-India Strategic Dialogue is likely to be held in July, according to sources here, including statements by Robert Blake, Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asian Affairs. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury confirmed that the coming U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership will be held during June 27-28.
Speaking at a hearing on Capitol Hill this week, Mr. Blake spoke of the “arc” of U.S.-India relations, noting that the Obama-Singh meeting in Washington in November 2009 had opened a “new chapter” in the bilateral relationship.
Other senior officials confirmed that next month would be the likely window for the talks.
Mr. Blake too said that in July Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would travel to India to pursue with her Indian counterpart the “huge range of bilateral government-to-government activity,” specifically 21 separate sub-dialogues that include trade, defence, visas and innovation.
While trade and investments for innovation have broadly seen a strong upswing in recent years, there are outstanding issues relating to defence and visas that the two sides may seek to iron out.
Although, as Mr. Blake said, U.S. firms obtained almost $8 billion in defence sales in the past four years, including the purchase of 10 Boeing C-17 airlifters, six C-130J aircraft, and eight P-8I long-range maritime patrol aircraft, the U.S. was ruled out during competitive bidding for the purchase of Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft by the Indian Air Force.
The decision, in April, to consider either the European Eurofighter or the French Rafale caught some policymakers here off-guard, raising questions about the extent to which India would continue to deepen its military ties with the U.S.
Thriving ties
Mr. Blake said U.S. visa issuance to Indians was a good indicator of “thriving relations,” and in the last four years, “Indians have received about half of all H1-B visas issued worldwide, and more than 44 per cent of all L-1 intra-company transfer visas.” He noted that 6,50,000 Indians travelled to the U.S. in 2010, an 18 per cent increase over 2009.
However, in this area too there are numerous wrinkles to smooth out, including allegations that some Indian IT companies were misusing H1 and B1 visas. Indian Industry Minister Anand Sharma, who is set to arrive in Washington later this month for a series of meetings, reportedly said he planned to take up the matter with the U.S.
Mr. Sharma was quoted as saying: “We have taken this up on more than one occasion with the U.S. government; I had written twice to the U.S. trade representative ambassador Ron Kirk, it should come up in the joint Trade Policy Forum.”
A dominant theme throughout this month's meetings in Washington and next month's talks in New Delhi is likely to be economic links and how they could be strengthened in the light of the ongoing recovery in the U.S.
In this context of particular salience will be the second annual meeting of the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership, which will be hosted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and led by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on the Indian side.
The second round of the United States-India Strategic Dialogue is likely to be held in July, according to sources here, including statements by Robert Blake, Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asian Affairs. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury confirmed that the coming U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership will be held during June 27-28.
Speaking at a hearing on Capitol Hill this week, Mr. Blake spoke of the “arc” of U.S.-India relations, noting that the Obama-Singh meeting in Washington in November 2009 had opened a “new chapter” in the bilateral relationship.
Other senior officials confirmed that next month would be the likely window for the talks.
Mr. Blake too said that in July Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would travel to India to pursue with her Indian counterpart the “huge range of bilateral government-to-government activity,” specifically 21 separate sub-dialogues that include trade, defence, visas and innovation.
While trade and investments for innovation have broadly seen a strong upswing in recent years, there are outstanding issues relating to defence and visas that the two sides may seek to iron out.
Although, as Mr. Blake said, U.S. firms obtained almost $8 billion in defence sales in the past four years, including the purchase of 10 Boeing C-17 airlifters, six C-130J aircraft, and eight P-8I long-range maritime patrol aircraft, the U.S. was ruled out during competitive bidding for the purchase of Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft by the Indian Air Force.
The decision, in April, to consider either the European Eurofighter or the French Rafale caught some policymakers here off-guard, raising questions about the extent to which India would continue to deepen its military ties with the U.S.
Thriving ties
Mr. Blake said U.S. visa issuance to Indians was a good indicator of “thriving relations,” and in the last four years, “Indians have received about half of all H1-B visas issued worldwide, and more than 44 per cent of all L-1 intra-company transfer visas.” He noted that 6,50,000 Indians travelled to the U.S. in 2010, an 18 per cent increase over 2009.
However, in this area too there are numerous wrinkles to smooth out, including allegations that some Indian IT companies were misusing H1 and B1 visas. Indian Industry Minister Anand Sharma, who is set to arrive in Washington later this month for a series of meetings, reportedly said he planned to take up the matter with the U.S.
Mr. Sharma was quoted as saying: “We have taken this up on more than one occasion with the U.S. government; I had written twice to the U.S. trade representative ambassador Ron Kirk, it should come up in the joint Trade Policy Forum.”
A dominant theme throughout this month's meetings in Washington and next month's talks in New Delhi is likely to be economic links and how they could be strengthened in the light of the ongoing recovery in the U.S.
In this context of particular salience will be the second annual meeting of the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership, which will be hosted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and led by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on the Indian side.
Labels: India-US relations, Robert Blake, United States-India Strategic Dialogue
Subscribe to Comments [Atom]
